Editorial note. This strategic analysis was produced by MEDASH SARL based on FAO, CIMMYT, World Bank data and field estimates in Chad. Figures presented are planning estimates and do not commit the institutions cited as secondary sources.

Executive Summary

Two iconic foods — mappa (the daily artisanal bread) and fangassou (the ubiquitous fried doughnut) — concentrate the bulk of Chad's dependency on imported wheat flour, representing an annual foreign exchange outflow of 90 to 137 million USD. The war in Ukraine (2022) caused a 35–50% rise in global wheat prices, directly passed on to mappa prices in N'Djamena.

This note demonstrates that Chad has real, underexploited agro-climatic potential: alluvial plains of the Chari and Logone rivers, Lake Chad polders, heat-tolerant varieties developed by CIMMYT, and a November-to-March growing window perfectly suited to wheat cultivation. Regional benchmarks from Ethiopia, Sudan and Morocco show that sector transformation is achievable in 7 to 10 years with firm political will.

"By 2031, Chad will cover 60% of its wheat flour needs through domestic production, guaranteeing affordable mappa and fangassou for all Chadians, regardless of global market fluctuations." — National Strategic Vision 2026–2031

1. Domestic Wheat Demand in Chad

1.1 Mappa: the national bread with total dependency

Mappa is an elongated artisanal bread made from imported wheat flour, consumed daily by millions of Chadians. Sold between 25 and 75 FCFA per unit, it is the staple breakfast food in urban areas and is progressively expanding to secondary rural towns.

IndicatorEstimate
Urban consuming population~3.5 million people
Average consumption1 mappa/person/day (100 g of flour)
Flour consumed — urban mappa350 t/day · 127,000 t/year
National estimate (urban + semi-urban)150,000 – 180,000 t of flour/year
Unit price25 to 75 FCFA depending on size

1.2 Fangassou: the engine of the female informal economy

Fangassou is a wheat flour-based fried doughnut, sold between 25 and 50 FCFA per unit. A quintessential street food consumed at breakfast and as a snack across the country, it is estimated to provide a livelihood for over 80,000 women and young people — making it a key vehicle for women's economic inclusion.

IndicatorEstimate
Active national vendors60,000 – 100,000 women
Flour consumption per vendor/day5 to 15 kg
Annual flour volume (fangassou)110,000 – 130,000 t/year
Unit price25 to 50 FCFA
Net margin per vendor3,000 to 10,000 FCFA/day

1.3 Consolidated national demand

Consumption itemAnnual volume (t flour)
Mappa (artisanal bread)150,000 – 180,000
Fangassou (street doughnut)110,000 – 130,000
Other domestic uses20,000 – 30,000
ESTIMATED NATIONAL TOTAL280,000 – 340,000

To produce 300,000 t of flour requires approximately 400,000 to 420,000 t of wheat grain (72% extraction rate). The CIF value of imports is estimated at 70–90 billion FCFA/year (107–137 million USD).

2. Chad's Agro-Climatic Potential

2.1 The growing window: November to March

Wheat is a cool-season crop (optimum 15–22°C). In Chad, this window corresponds to the cold dry season (baridi) from November to March — when overnight temperatures fall to 12–18°C in the south and centre. Dry air limits fungal disease. Chari and Logone floods have deposited fertile alluvial silt on the plains.

2.2 High-potential zones

ZonePotential areaCurrent usePotential yield
Lake Chad polders80,000 – 120,000 ha25%3 – 4 t/ha
Chari-Baguirmi plains150,000 ha3%2.5 – 3.5 t/ha
Mayo-Kebbi (Logone)80,000 ha4%2.5 – 3.5 t/ha
Salamat / Moyen-Chari60,000 ha2%2 – 3 t/ha
TOTAL~410,000 ha~10%

Chad's current irrigated area is approximately 30,000–40,000 hectares, less than 1% of the irrigable potential estimated by the FAO at 5.6 million hectares — one of the lowest exploitation rates in sub-Saharan Africa. The Chari (average flow 1,200 m³/s) and Logone (600–800 m³/s) rivers are the base resources for off-season wheat irrigation.

2.3 Varieties suited to Chad's context

VarietyOriginCharacteristicsPotential yield
ICARDA HTBLICARDA / SyriaHeat tolerance, 100-day cycle3.0 – 4.5 t/ha
KakabaEthiopia / CIMMYTDurum wheat, Sahel-adapted2.5 – 3.5 t/ha
HubaraSudanArid conditions2.0 – 3.0 t/ha
AtilaCIMMYT MexicoHigh yield, heat3.5 – 5.0 t/ha
KauzCIMMYTSoft wheat, good milling quality3.0 – 4.0 t/ha

3. The Wheat Value Chain in Chad

The wheat-flour-processed products value chain is currently truncated at its base: it starts at importation, with no local production link. The challenge is to rebuild the upstream chain, creating added value and jobs at every node.

Wheat Value Chain — 7 Nodes to Build 🌱 Inputs & seeds 🌾 Farming production 🏪 Collection & storage ⚙️ Milling Critical bottleneck 🚚 Distribution flour 🥖 Mappa & Fangassou 👨‍👩‍👧‍👦 End consumer © MEDASH SARL, 2026 — Milling (in red) is the central bottleneck of Chad's wheat sector

Chad's wheat value chain. Milling is the most critical node: the country has only one industrial mill (200 t/day), covering less than 30% of national needs.

4. Regional Benchmarks

4.1 Ethiopia: the wheat revolution in a hot tropical zone

Ethiopia transformed its wheat sector in under 12 years through four levers: CIMMYT heat-tolerant seeds subsidised at 50%, deployment of 70,000 agricultural extension agents, complementary irrigation by solar pumps, and a guaranteed floor price for producers (USD 120/t). Result: from 3.5 million to 10.2 million tonnes between 2012 and 2023, and 500,000 t exported in 2023.

IndicatorEthiopia 2012Ethiopia 2023Change
Wheat area1.6 M ha2.8 M ha+75%
Production3.5 M t10.2 M t+191%
Average yield2.1 t/ha3.6 t/ha+71%
Share imported~40%<5%–87%

4.2 Sudan: Sahelian recession wheat

Sudan has practised irrigated wheat since the 1960s (Gezira project, 882,000 ha). In regions close to Chad (Darfur, Kordofan), recession wheat is grown after floodwaters recede, without artificial irrigation, yielding 1.0–1.5 t/ha at very low cost. This model is directly transferable to the Chari and Logone plains as a 2026–2027 pilot phase.

5. Constraints and Risks

ConstraintTreatmentLevel
Climate change (heat, drought)CIMMYT varieties + efficient irrigation🔴 Critical
Competition from subsidised imported wheatTariff protection + input subsidies🔴 Critical
Agricultural financing deficit (<3% of credit)National fund + campaign credit🔴 Critical
Insufficient irrigation infrastructureDonor investments + maintenance🟠 Major
Insecurity in target zones (Lake, Salamat)Secured zoning + protected perimeters🟠 Major
Deficit in farmers' technical skillsTraining + 1,000 extension agents🟡 Moderate

6. Strategic Recommendations and 2026–2031 Roadmap

6.1 Policy and institutional recommendations

  1. Establish a National Cereals Office (ONCéréales-Chad) — on the model of Morocco's ONICL: set reference prices for wheat and flour, manage a national strategic stock (3-month objective = 75,000 t), regulate imports. Estimated budget: 2 to 3 billion FCFA/year. Timeline: 12 to 18 months.
  2. Adopt a Flour Sovereignty Law — classify wheat as a national strategic crop. Exempt seeds, fertilizers and irrigation equipment from VAT. Introduce protective tariffs of 25–35% on imported flour. Impose local supply quotas on mills: 10% in 2027, 30% in 2029, 60% in 2031.
  3. Launch a Presidential "Chadian Wheat" Programme — a strong political signal to investors and donors. National campaign promoting mappa and fangassou made from Chadian flour. National Best Wheat Producer Award. Introduction of wheat in agricultural high school curricula.

6.2 The 2026–2031 Roadmap

2026
H2

Foundation — Institutional framework established

ONCéréales · Flour Sovereignty Law · Presidential programme · CIMMYT agreements · 5,000 ha pilot campaign (recession, November 2026)

2027

Launch — 25,000 ha · 40,000 t produced

8,000–10,000 t pilot harvest · Baguirmi + North Lake poles begin · Seed farms · Campaign credit fund · 300 agents trained

2028

Scale-up — 50,000 ha · 15% self-sufficiency

Lake Mill (150 t/day) · Chari-South expansion · "Chadian Flour" label · Mappa Bakers' Federation

2029

Consolidation — 100,000 ha · 35% self-sufficiency

South + Logone mills · Salamat pole · 50,000 t strategic silo · 30% local mill quota

2031

Target — 60% self-sufficiency · 500,000 jobs

200,000 ha cultivated · 700 t/day milling capacity · 60–80 M USD saved/year · Exports to Niger/CAR/Cameroon

6.3 Financing mobilisation — 2026–2031 plan

The programme requires an estimated total investment of 600–890 million USD over 5 years, mobilisable from multilateral donors active in Chad.

IsDB (Islamic Development Bank)
150–200 M USD
Irrigation + milling
World Bank / IDA
150–200 M USD
Rural roads + storage
AfDB
100–150 M USD
Hydraulic infrastructure
IFAD
50–80 M USD
Seeds + rural credit + fangassou vendors
FAO / WFP
20–30 M USD
Training + flour subsidy
European Union
30–50 M USD
Agricultural extension + research

7. Conclusion

Mappa is not just bread. It is the daily barometer of Chadian purchasing power, the first food consumed every morning in millions of households, from N'Djamena to Moundou, from Abéché to Sarh. And fangassou is not just a doughnut — it is the livelihood of hundreds of thousands of Chadian women, the informal economy that feeds families when everything else falters.

That these two emblematic foods depend 100% on imported flour is an unacceptable vulnerability for a country that has the land, water, sunshine and workforce needed to grow its own wheat. The transformation window exists. Neighbouring countries have proven it. Technologies are available. Finance is mobilisable.

Tomorrow's mappa can and must be made from Chadian flour.

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